This morning
While demand on the UK gas system remains strong at 389MCM this morning, this should fall off as the day goes on and we move into the weekend. Forecast deliveries are showing the system 3MCM long at present and prompt prices continue to soften in early trading. LNG is featuring strongly in the supply mix this morning with a combined send-out of 78MCM, of which 57MCM is coming from Milford Haven South Hook. Long range storage withdrawals continue at around 30MCM and at this rate, remaining reserves would be good for a further 22 days but if withdrawals return to maximum rates, Rough storage could be exhausted by March 20. The market appears to perceive the storage issue as becoming less critical as we move towards the end of winter and prompt prices are beginning to reflect this. The easing on the prompt is weighing on futures prices also and the front month is down by 0.35p to 29.45p this morning, while the summer contract is down by a similar amount to 29.40p. Brent crude is up 50 cents to $79.
Thursday
Summer 2010 gas reached a three month low on Thursday after the contract reached its first sub 30.00p settlement price since 4 December 2010. The decline came about partly in response to a decline in prompt gas prices although the ongoing reduced output levels from the Rough storage facility will also have exerted a degree of downward pressure on the market. Continued strong LNG deliveries into the UK market and the outlook for further demand reductions in the short term also added to the downward pressure and the loss of 1.01p on the broader Summer 2010 over a single day pointed towards reasonable weakness in the market. The loss was supported by strong traded volume with the contract trading more than its cumulative volume for the previous four days while a decline of 0.84p on the Winter 2010 contract was also supported by reasonable volume. Crude oil retraced most of Wednesday's gains and Brent settled at $78.54, down 75c.

This morning
Demand on the UK gas system remains strong this morning with forecast deliveries exactly balancing the forecast demand of 391MCM. Yesterday's problem at the St. Fergus processing facility which brought Shell and Mobil imports to the main Scottish receiving station to a halt was resolved and supply gradually returned to normal overnight. Norwegian supply and LNG send-out remain robust and the combined deliveries have allowed an easing of both long and medium range storage withdrawals this morning. The healthy supply-demand situation this morning is weighing on the prompt which is down by 0.5p in early trading and near futures contracts have also shed a similar amount with June becoming the first of the summer months to break below 30p since mid-January. Crude has retreated from yesterday's 6 week high as the dollar strengthens against most major currencies again this morning. Brent has shed 40c slipping to $78.80 in early trading.
Wednesday
On a third consecutive day of low volume trading, UK gas price movement was again confined to a narrow band of 32 to 33p on the prompt and futures contracts were down only fractionally on Tuesday's closing levels. The supply-demand situation, which had begun with a finely balanced forecast around a demand level of 394MCM, deteriorated during the trading day as demand crept towards 400MCM and deliveries fell off to leave the system running a 15MCM deficit. The loss of almost 45MCM on deliveries into St. Fergus Shell and Mobil terminals mid-morning was partly compensated by a ramp up in Langeled and LNG supplies but the shortfall on the system drove within-day prices higher, although the gains did not fully cancel out Tuesday's losses and apart from the day-ahead, other prompt prices continued to move down. Futures contracts also gave up value although losses further out the curve were limited by strengthening oil prices on the day as crude gained over a dollar to settle at $79.29.

This morning 
The gas system in the UK is finely balanced this morning with forecast demand exactly matching forecast supply.  Demand remains high and at 394MCM is 15% ahead of the seasonal norm of 344MCM.  Physical deliveries are running at 389MCM at the moment.  Over the last 48hrs the Bacton Zeebrugge interconnector has flipped from import to export mode although send out is quite low at the moment at just 4MCM.  Flows of gas from long range storage at Rough have maintained their flow rate from yesterday and just under 24MCM is emanating from this source.  The short range storage facility at Aldborough turned off in the early evening on Monday but has once again ramped up this morning and is adding 8MCM to the system.  LNG production has topped 59MCM so far this morning with the terminals at  Grain NTS 1 and Milford Haven Dragon/South Hook all active.  Norwegian flows are also strong this morning with Langeled contributing 65MCM to the overall total of 117MCM.  On the markets prices are softening for the front quarter although losses have been restricted to the 0.20p to 0.30p range.  With the exception of the within day contract, which has moved up slightly by 0.10p, the remainder of the prompt has moved lower by a similar amount to the futures market.  Crude oil is trading directionless with prices close to last night's settlement.  Brent crude on ICE is priced at $78.28 a barrel.
Tuesday
Crude oil futures traded higher in both Europe and the U.S.  on Tuesday with investors seeking riskier assets, such as oil and equities, but overall caution remains ahead of Wednesday's key oil inventory data report.  Light, sweet crude for April delivery traded 98 cents higher at $79.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.  Brent crude on the  ICE futures exchange traded $1.29 higher at $78.18 a barrel.  Gas markets moved in the opposite direction to crude oil and a well supplied gas market in the UK saw prompt markets move lower across the board.  The within day contract lost the greatest amount shedding 0.85p while day ahead gas was not far behind at 32.65p, down by 0.75p.  Other prompt contracts shed between 0.50p and 0.30p per therm.  The futures market was also dragged lower by the prompt and with currency movement kept to a minimum retraced some of the ground lost on Monday. 

This morning
Gas demand in the UK remains high as cold, frosty weather continues over the UK and distribution/heating demand continues to impact on the system.  Forecast demand in the UK for today is projected at 382MCM.  This figure is 17MCM higher than yesterday's level and almost 38MCM higher than the seasonal norm.  The supply side has  responded well to the higher demand level and flows today are expected to exceed 390MCM leaving the system long by 8 MCM.  The system is quite comfortable at the moment and Norwegian imports are contributing to this with both Langeled and St. Fergus Total sending out  70MCM and 49MCM respectively.  Storage flows have also been boosted to 20MCM although this figure is well below maximum flow rates.  Milford Haven South Hook LNG production remains high and has reached 65MCM once again.  On the markets, gas prompt prices are down by around 1.00p from yesterday with latest trades for within day and day ahead gas going through at 32.25p and 32.50p respectively.   Gas futures prices are broadly steady with summer 2010 up by 0.17p while the front Winter is down by 0.30p.  Crude oil is also trading flat with the April Brent contract currently at $76.75, down 14 cents.
Monday
Trading on the UK gas markets has been extremely slow for the first day of the month but despite the low volume turnover, price movement was reasonably reflective of the supply-demand situation on the day.  An early deficit of 15MCM on the system was gradually overhauled as Norwegian supply returned to near normal levels by mid-day and LNG send-out from South Hook hit a new intra-day high of 70MCM to leave the system slightly long at market close.   Line-pack was up by just 1.5MCM day-on-day though still under projected at under 350MCM.  Within-day gas had gained over a penny in early trading but this was partly retraced and the contract closed 0.4p down on Friday's day-ahead price for Monday.  Remaining prompt and near futures prices moved in a range of 0.2 to 0.5p, the new front month, April, recording the biggest gain of the day, up 0.26p.Crude oil also failed to retain its early gains as prices re-coiled by over $2.00 from their intra-day highs during late trading.

Weekend/this morning
Demand on the UK gas system remained strong over the weekend as cold and windy weather swept the south and east of England which was no doubt exacerbated by the chill factor following the big gain for Green Power in London on Saturday. Having coped comfortably with demand of around 360MCM on Saturday, supply to the UK system failed to match an increase of 10MCM on Sunday and with demand up by a further 15MCM this morning, the system is running a similar deficit with line-pack predicted to finish the day down by 15MCM. Weather related demand in Western Europe increased significantly with the severe storms over the weekend and significant volumes of Norwegian gas are diverting to mainland Europe and interconnector flows into the UK ceased at 6am this morning with some exports forecast for the remainder of the day. The supply side response has come mainly from LNG, with Milford Haven South Hook delivering 60MCM at present and Rough storage withdrawals up to 20MCM. The prompt has gained a penny on all contracts this morning and the April and May contracts are up by 0.5p in early trading. Crude oil movement remains largely currency driven and Brent is trading at over $78 this morning. 
Friday
As temperatures fell lower across the UK on Friday, gas demand crept up again, leaving the system finely balanced for most of the day. With forecast demand at or around 365MCM on Friday, deliveries ran 1-2MCM above or below this level throughout the trading day. All principal supply sources remained strong on the day with Norwegian deliveries at 120MCM and LNG send-out at 50MCM. The Bacton-Zeebrugge interconnector contributed little to the supply mix on the day but more importantly, no increase in storage withdrawals was required to balance the system. The prompt market was less responsive to the tight supply-demand situation on the day than to the end of month adjustment which sees April assume front-month status. Prices for the weekend and week-ahead fell by 0.90 and 0.45p respectively. On the futures market, April, May and June shed an average of 0.6p with April recording the biggest loss of the day (0.86p). Crude oil regained most of Thursday's loss to close the week at $77.59.

This morning 
Gas demand has increased by a small amount this morning and today's forecast is coming at 365MCM, 7MCM ahead of yesterday's peak value.  The system is delicately balanced at the moment with supplies almost exactly matching forecast demand.  Physical deliveries are slightly ahead of demand by 1MCM.  Yesterday's impressive sent out from the Milford Haven South Hook LNG terminal has stepped back from Thursday's peak of 66MCM and production has declined to just 32MCM.  Overall LNG production is contributing just 46MCM in total while gas from Langeled is steady at 68MCM, almost on par with yesterday's level.  Gas flows from long range storage at Rough remains subdued with only 10MCM emanating from this source.  All other storage facilities remain offline at this point.  On the markets the prompt has opened softer and contracts for both the weekend and Monday next are quoted at 32.25p and 32.50p, down by 0.25 and 0.50p respectively.  Gas for next week is slightly up with 0.20p added in anticipation of cooler temperatures during next week.  On Spectron the front month March contract will expire today and it has shed 0.42p so far this morning. On ICE the new front month April has shed 0.83p while further out both Summer '10 and Winter '10 have shed just over half a penny.  Crude oil is trading in a narrow band at the moment and has failed to retrace any of yesterday's losses.
Thursday 
UK gas demand continues to decline as weather conditions improve and temperature rise.   Demand on Thursday reached 358MCM, which despite being higher than the seasonal norm, was lower than level we have seen over the last few days.  As a consequence of this, storage supplies stepped back even further and deliveries from long range storage at Rough only reached 10MCM on the day.  LNG made a considerable contribution to the system's comfort with production at Milford Haven South Hook topping 66MCM.  Prompt prices moved lower by between 0.25p and 0.75p across the board.  The day ahead contract settled at 32.50p per therm having shed 0.50p.   Crude oil took a  hit on Thursday as poor jobless data from the U.S.  gave world markets the jitters and prices were marked down by $1.80, as crude settled at  $76.29 a barrel.   On the futures market prices moved off their intra-day highs to settle close to their previous closing positions as the lower crude oil price impacted.

This morning
Demand on the UK gas system has taken another significant step down overnight and is forecast at 358MCM for today with forecast deliveries currently running at 374MCM leaving the system very comfortable. Perhaps the most comforting element of the supply-demand situation this morning is that storage withdrawals remain at just 10MCM, this coming from Rough long-range storage, with no withdrawals from medium or short-range storage. LNG send-out has increased to almost 60MCM and Norwegian supply remains at 120MCM. The markets are not proving responsive to the healthy supply-demand situation as yet however, as both prompt and near futures contracts which have traded so far this morning are all fractionally up. March, which relinquishes front-month status today, is up 0.3p as weather forecasts predict another cold spell for the week after next and concerns remain for the availability of storage gas to cushion another heavy demand period. Having gained further on Asian markets overnight, crude oil has opened lower on the London market this morning and Brent is trading under $78 again.
Wednesday
UK gas demand was down by almost 30MCM yesterday by comparison with Tuesday, thanks to a reduction in temperature sensitive demand. Deliveries remained strong with forecast supply running at 387MCM early in the day and retaining a 5MCM surplus at the close of trading while delivering 377MCM. Imports via the Bacton-Zeebrugge interconnector on the east coast ceased at the start of the gas day but this was compensated by the return of the South Morecambe feeder to Barrow on the west coast earlier. Norwegian deliveries remained robust at around 120MCM in total and LNG send-out was also strong yesterday at around 45MCM. The most significant response to the lower demand on the day was a stepped reduction in withdrawals from long range storage down to 10MCM at the close of trading yesterday. This is the lowest withdrawal rate from Rough since mid-December. The market did not respond favourably however, as both prompt and futures prices made modest gains, with oil pushing higher on the day also.   

This morning
UK gas demand has eased slightly this morning, down from 399 MCM yesterday, to 372 MCM today, courtesy of milder weather and a reduction in temperature sensitive demand.  The supply position has remained strong with forecast supply currently running at 387 MCM while instantaneous flows are at 384 MCM.  Supplies of Norwegian gas into the UK market have remained robust, with the Langeled pipeline currently delivering at a rate of 73 MCM while the Norwegian Vesterled pipeline is contributing to a St Fergus Total terminal delivery rate of 52 MCM.  LNG flows remain strong, at 51 MCM while withdrawals from long range storage have reduced to 20 MCM.  As anticipated, the lack of premium in the prompt market over the front month has provided less of an incentive for storage withdrawals.  Within day gas and the front month are both priced at 33.00p this morning while day ahead gas has last traded just marginally higher, at 33.20p.  Gas futures prices out to Winter 2010 are up by 0.30p to 0.55p and crude oil prices are down marginally with the April Brent crude contract last trading at $76.78, down 47 cents
Tuesday
Gas futures prices for the remainder of 2010 gained around 0.40p to 0.60p yesterday despite ongoing weakness in the gas prompt market and a day on day loss in crude oil markets which topped the $2.00 mark at one point.  By the close of business, the premium in the front month contract over the prompt market was just 0.50p.  The contraction of that premium brought a further decline in Rough storage production levels with the facility operating at a rate of 33 MCM from around 2PM onwards.  We expect to see further reductions in withdrawal rates over the coming days and potentially a further consequential easing in the March contract as the reduced production levels serve to extend the capacity for the facility to produce at maximum output through to nearer the end of March.  For crude oil markets, the previous week's gain of around $5.50 was at least partially retraced with a stronger dollar, weaker equities and news of a decline in consumer sentiment driving a loss of $1.36 by the close.  

This morning
UK gas demand remains strong this morning, with the current forecast pitched at 400 MCM, some 19% above Seasonal normal demand.  With forecast flows running at 408 MCM and instantaneous flows at 404 MCM, the system is well supplied.  The prompt market has retained yesterday's losses through early trading with current traded prices just marginally below yesterday's closing levels.  Within day gas has last traded at 33.25p and day ahead gas has gone through at the same level with the balance of week and weekend periods marginally lower again, at 33.00p and 32.75p respectively.  Unusually, the futures market has moved in the opposite direction to the prompt market this morning, with prices for the two front months up by 0.41p and 0.38p respectively while the two front Seasons are up by similar amounts with Summer 2010 last trading at 31.30p and Winter 2010 at 42.40p.  Crude oil prices have eased only marginally during overnight Asian trading and early European trading with April Brent crude currently at $78.41.
Monday
Gas demand in the UK remained high on Monday as below normal temperatures remained across much of the UK.  Demand remained close to the 400MCM mark but once again supplies ran in excess of this figure and linepack was due to grow by 7MCM early on.  Supplies from continental Europe across the interconnector were much reduced from the weekend and consequently both long  and medium range storage were delivering into the system at near peak levels.  The threat of industrial action still remains at the Milford Haven terminal and at the time of writing there was no new news on a resolution.  A delivery of LNG is due at the terminal tomorrow and we expect this to be offloaded normally.  The markets were unconcerned with the threat of industrial action and the prompt lost between 1.55p and 2.25p.  The expectation of milder weather at the weekend and next week saw these contracts move lower to 32.80p and 32.75p respectively.  Crude oil traded sideways for much of the session and finished at $78.61 a barrel.

Weekend/this morning
Demand on the UK gas system remained approximately 20% above the seasonal norm over the weekend but deliveries into the system maintained a healthy margin over demand as Norwegian supply returned to over 100MCM having fallen off to just 70MCM on Friday evening. Long range storage withdrawals dropped off to 25MCM for much of the weekend but were back up to 45MCM by Sunday evening as temperatures dipped below freezing again. Bacton- Zeebrugge remained in import mode throughout the weekend and continues to deliver into a well supplied system this morning as forecast demand again touches 400MCM with forecast deliveries at 404MCM. Prompt prices have eased further this morning, within-day trading at 33.75p and day-ahead at 33.50p. With March down to 32.25p, the prompt retains sufficient premium over the front month to see long range storage withdrawals returning to maximum rates. Prices for the summer are down marginally but Winter 2010 is down 0.5p in early trading. Brent crude is unchanged from Friday at $78.28.
Friday
Friday saw demand at just under 400MCM and delivery levels averaging 405MCM through the gas day leading to an increase in line pack of 6MCM going into the weekend. The main change in the supply-demand situation from Thursday was the ramp -up of Norwegian supply via Langeled to 70MCM during market trading hours. Langeled flows dropped by almost 50MCM at market close however and system balance was maintained by a sharp increase in mid-range storage withdrawal rates. Long range storage withdrawal continued at near maximum rates again on Friday as spot prices maintained a strong margin over the front month, despite a fall of 1.2p on within-day prices and a drop of just under 0.6p on the March contract price. Losses on the prompt otherwise averaged just 0.5p on the day while futures contracts for the summer recorded only marginal losses and contracts further out saw marginal gains as oil continued to strengthen.

This morning
UK gas demand remains strong this morning and is currently forecast at 20% above Seasonal Norms, at 396 MCM.  With forecast supply running at 422 MCM and instantaneous flows at 425 MCM, the market is well supplied and prompt prices have responded to this with losses of around 1.50p against yesterday's closing levels.  Within day gas has last traded at 34.70p, day ahead gas is at 35.25p and gas for delivery at the weekend is slightly lower, at 35.10p.  The gas futures market has responded to the prompt market weakness with losses of around 0.30p to 0.55p on periods out to Winter 2010.  The March contract has last traded at 32.61p, down 0.56p, Summer 2010 has gone through at 30.85p, 0.30p down on yesterday's close and the Winter 2010 contract is down by a similar amount at 41.95p.  On the supply side, deliveries of Norwegian gas through the Langeled pipeline have stepped back up to the 70 MCM mark while Rough storage production is continuing at full tilt due to the premium of 2.00p to 3.00p in prompt prices over the front month.  After falling by $5.27 over the past three days, Brent crude for April delivery is down by 97 cents, at $76.81, with dollar strength the key driver. 
Thursday
Gas prompt prices and futures prices eased lower again on Thursday although the majority of earlier losses on the prompt market were retraced by the close of business following a shift in the within day supply and demand balance.  That shift left the market with a modest supply deficit of 13 MCM to 15 MCM through the afternoon trading session, largely due to an increase in forecast demand from 389 MCM to 398 MCM and a reduction in deliveries of Norwegian gas via the Langeled pipeline.  While the futures market followed the intra-day swing in prompt prices up to a point, the market eventually eased back during the latter stages of trading with most contracts closing within around 0.20p of their intra-day lows to post day on day losses in a range of 0.20p to 0.80p.  For crude oil markets, gains for the dollar drove some early losses before the release of U.S. data confirming a greater than expected decline in distillate stocks provided a shift in direction for the market. 

This morning
Gas demand in the UK has opened at the same level as yesterday's forecast, 389MCM, and it remains to be seen if we will see the same s ramp up as occurred yesterday.  Demand remains high and is recorded at over 14% above the seasonal norm.  Supplies are adequate this morning and with nominations reaching 395MCM the system has a reasonable amount of length of 4MCM.  While Rough storage continues to send out significant amounts of gas there has been as slight downturn in this level and at the moment flows are running at 42MCM.  Overall most sources of are operating near where they started yesterday morning.  Supplies out of Easington Langeled have reversed the downturn we saw over the course of the day yesterday and are back up towards 67MCM. Milford Haven South Hook is providing the main source of LNG production and its contribution of 32MCM is adding to overall LNG send out of 49MCM.  The softness in gas markets is continuing this morning and prompt contract have moved lower by between 0.50p and 1.00p in early trading.  The within price is now showing at 35.50p while day ahead gas is changing hands at 35.60p per therm.  The main trading activity on the futures market is out in the seasons where Summer 2010 is 31.15p and Winter 2010 is 42.05, down by 0.71p and 0.75p respectively.
Wednesday
Demand on the UK gas system remained high on Wednesday and while it was initially forecast at 389MCM, it grew to 392MCM by noon and then higher still to 396MCM by mid afternoon.  The early forecast supply situation of 406MCM gave an opening surplus of 17MCM but this was quickly eroded as the demand profile grew and supply sunk.  Prompt prices were less inclined to follow the supply/demand fundamentals on the day and overall prompt contracts declined by between 0.50p and 1.15p per therm. The futures market also followed this trend and the impact of crude oil's $3.00 gain on Tuesday was nowhere to be seen on the UK NBP.  Prices overall on the futures market declined by between 0.80p and 1.10p, retracing all of the previous session's gains.  Crude oil did not stray too far from its previous settlement as concerns about Greece's sovereign debt  eased.  Crude settled at $76.27 a barrel, down by $0.59 at the close.

This morning
The fall off in Norwegian gas deliveries yesterday evening has been reversed, and Langeled is flowing at 65MCM this morning, with Vesterled delivering 55MCM to St. Fergus. Overall demand on the UK system has fallen to 389MCM this morning with exports down by 8MCM from yesterday's level of 16MCM. Temperature sensitive demand remains high however as the UK and Ireland remain in the grip of the cold spell but the gas system remains in good health, showing a surplus of 18MCM with forecast deliveries at 407MCM at 10am. Threatened industrial action by pilots and ship handlers at Milford Haven is the subject of an application for a court injunction this morning but with this threat looming, the terminal operators brought 2 shipments of LNG in over the last 3 days and stocks are healthy. Prolonged action by the river pilots could prevent further shipments arriving and put more pressure on the UK gas system for as long as the cold spell continues. Despite this concern, yesterday's gains have been largely relinquished. The oil market is retaining yesterday's gains however and Brent crude has added a further 40c in early trading to stand at $76 at 10am.
Tuesday
Demand on the UK gas system remained strong yesterday, after opening at 398 MCM and with a surplus of 16MCM, within day gas traded as low as 35.5p.   As demand declined slightly, forecast deliveries fell off rapidly leaving the system finely balanced for most of the trading day and even slightly short at the close. Within-day gas gained 2p from its intra-day low to finish at 37.50p and the rest of the prompt was similarly strong as weather forecasts showed continuing low temperatures for the next seven to ten days. The front month also reversed its downward run of the previous five days, gaining 0.92p as concerns over the availability of gas from storage in March continued, while prices for the summer and seasons further out also gained 0.5 to 0.9p supported by a strong upturn in oil prices on the day. Brent crude gained over $3 to top $75 per barrel again. Oil markets were responding to a strong US equities market and slightly weaker dollar.

This morning
Forecast gas demand for the UK market remains strong this morning, at 398 MCM, as the ongoing cold snap continues to support demand at around 17% above Seasonal Norms.  As was the case yesterday, the supply outlook is equally robust with forecast supply and instantaneous flows both currently running at 414 MCM.  Despite the strong supply position, gas prompt prices have increased marginally with the majority of products up by around 0.70p to 0.80p.  Within day gas has last traded at 36.50p, day ahead gas is at 36.40 while balance of week and balance of month are at 36.40p and 36.50p respectively.  Gas futures contracts for near delivery have responded to the gains in the prompt market with the two front months up by 0.47p and 0.51p respectively.  The front Summer is currently up by 0.50p while the Winter 2010 contract has seen only a marginal gain of 0.18p during early trading.  Finally, Brent crude is currently up by 88 cents with the front month April contract last trading at $73.39 a barrel.  
Monday
Crude oil prices fell marginally on Monday as the market remained committed to last week's generally bearish data with the U.S. market and a number of key Asian markets closed for public holidays.  The lower level of liquidity in the market failed to drive any increase in volatility and the market traded sideways for a good part of the day before prices eased lower through the afternoon session.  With oil down marginally and gas prompt prices also easing, the UK gas futures market was left with only one direction to go and perhaps the most significant move of the day was the loss of 1.13p on the Winter 2010 contract.  For the prompt market, continued high demand at around the 400 MCM mark provided some support but failed ultimately to prevent a marginal easing in prices, despite continued withdrawals from long range storage at maximum capacity and a modest reduction in Norwegian supplies to the UK. 

This morning /the weekend
Demand for gas over the weekend reduced to 277MCM on average for both Saturday and Sunday.  While this figure remains higher than the seasonal norm it was lower than the preceding Friday's peak demand of   398MCM.  The system was well able to cope with this level of demand a and ran with a surplus on both days with Sunday in particular posting a surplus of 30MCM.  Flows from storage continued over the weekend as did strong LNG production.  Demand this morning has once again crept up to the 400MCM and the system is showing just below that at 398MCM.  Nevertheless the system is comfortable and is displaying a surplus of 11MCM on a supply of 409MCM.  Easington Langeled is operating at maximum capacity of 70MCM this morning and is being supported by a send out of 45MCM from long range storage and 60MCM of combined LNG production.  On the markets prices have increase over the last hour on the prompt while this has translated into 0.25p of an uplift on near term futures contracts.  Within day gas is quoted at 36.25p while day ahead is also trading at 36.25p per therm.  Crude oil is trading in a narrow range between $73.20 and $72.64.  Prices are flat to last Friday's close at $72.83 a barrel.
Friday
UK gas prompt prices eased marginally on Friday in response to a 5% decline in demand from the previous day, although demand remained strong nonetheless at 398 MCM or 19% above Seasonal Normal Demand.  The gas futures market was broadly stable while crude oil's brief recovery of the previous two days came to a halt as a combination of economic factors exerted downward pressure on the market with prices down by around $1.20 to $2.00 for much of the trading day and $1.22 at the close of trading.  Reports that China had increased its bank reserve requirement pointed towards a slower economic recovery for the region and a consequent decline in the pace of recovery in oil demand.  A lack of clarity around the shape of the bail-out package for Greece added to the downward pressure as the euro remained under pressure and oil markets inevitably came under pressure from the dollar's strength.  

This morning
Demand on the UK gas system is down considerably this morning with a slight rise in temperatures and the normal fall-off in demand on a Friday heading into the weekend. Forecast deliveries at 413MCM and demand at 0900 forecast at 401MCM, the system has a comfortable margin. Market movement is mixed so far this morning with prompt prices down by up to a penny but near futures have gained slightly with March currently trading at 34.65p up 0.36p on last night's closing price. The front summer and winter contracts are both up by 0.2p in early trading but volumes traded are very small and may not represent any real trend. Crude oil has retraced yesterday's gains as the front trading month switches to April which is currently quoted at $73.75 per barrel for Brent crude but the market is still waiting to see what the US inventory data will reveal later today. 
Thursday
With demand up to 420MCM on Thursday, the UK gas system again proved resilient with deliveries running at between 425 and 430MCM for most of the day. The difference yesterday was that the extra demand was largely supplied by mid-range storage withdrawals and by a small increase in LNG send-out.   Norwegian deliveries held steady at 120MCM and long range storage withdrawals continued at maximum rates of 45 to 47MCM. Near futures contracts nudged up slightly while further out, marginal losses were recorded on the front winter and summer 2011 contracts. Prompt prices were similarly divided as the within-day and day-ahead contracts gained while the weekend and week-ahead shed some value. Oil traded sluggishly again as the market awaited today's delayed release of the weekly inventory data from the US. Expectations are for a build in stocks which could put oil prices under renewed downward pressure.     

This morning 
Demand on the UK gas system is up again this morning as temperatures take another dip. Forecast demand at 9am was running at 416MCM but forecast deliveries were at 425MCM with physical deliveries matching the forecast and maintaining a 9MCM surplus on the system. LNG send-out has remained steady at the 60MCM rate since yesterday and export flows on the Bacton-Zeebrugge interconnector are down to a trickle this morning. Prompt contracts are all trading at or close to 37.00p, a gain of 0.75p typically and while balance of month has yet to trade, it will almost certainly be at or close to this level, given that the front month contract has gained 0.8p in early trading to last trade at 34.8p. Summer is up by 0.3p and contracts further forward are marginally up on last night's closing positions. Crude oil is little changed overnight as the dollar is unmoved and the market seems happy to wait for direction from the US inventory data due out tomorrow.
Wednesday
Forecast demand in the UK remained around 410MCM throughout Wednesday as the cold weather continued but the supply side continued to respond well, maintaining a 5 - 10MCM cushion on the system all day. As the Bacton-Zeebrugge interconnector remained in export mode for the second day running, the deficit was made up by additional Norwegian deliveries and increased LNG send-out. Long range storage withdrawals from Rough continued at maximum rate and saw reserves from this source down to 28 days at maximum withdrawal rate. Despite the dwindling storage reserves, both prompt and front months contracts shed appreciable value, with day-ahead, week-ahead and balance of month all down to 36p. Crude oil traded sluggishly as the release of US inventory data was postponed to Friday because of the weather conditions earlier in the week which prevented people getting to work.

This morning 
Forecast demand in the UK remains high this morning and as cold weather continues, demand is predicted to peak at 409MCM this morning.  As ever the supply side continues to respond well to this demand, which is 20% higher than the seasonal norm, and supplies are currently running 418MCM.  Instantaneous physical flows at the moment are higher still at 425MCM and the system is on course to grow linepack by 9MCM.  The three principle storage facilities at Rough (long range), Hornsea (Medium range) and Aldborough (short range) remain fully operational and combined send out from these terminals is running at 67MCM.  While flows out of Easington Langeled have reduced by 6MCM from yesterday's opening level a ramp up in sent out from St. Fergus Total has seen imports from Norway remain on overall par with yesterday at 118MCM.  Notably, LNG production has increased strongly day on day and aggregate send out from all terminals is 74MCM, 11MCM ahead of Tuesday's level.  The very positive supply/demand balance is being reflected in prices which have opened softer this morning on the near month of the  futures market.  Overall price for gas are down by half a penny.  Crude oil is lower this am at €71.79 a barrel.
Tuesday
UK prompt gas prices moved higher in the morning session as UK gas demand once again remained above the 400MCM mark.  The system did open with an early surplus of 17MCM but this flipped to a deficit of 6MCM by noon.  With the system short and temperature low, prices pushed up to 40.00p for within day gas.  Prices eased later as the system became more comfortable with more gas emanating from LNG.  The day ahead and balance of the week retained an amount of cold weather premium as forecast for low temperatures remained.  For the most part prices at the NBP futures market declined with March losing 1.44p and April down by 0.90p.  Further out the crude oil rally offered support and losses were only 0.60p for Summer 2010 and a paltry 0.20p for winter 2010.   Crude oil futures moved higher on Tuesday  gaining support from a resurgent stock market and expectations of higher demand on account of the major snow storm which is due to hit the northeastern  parts of the U.S.

This morning
UK gas demand has stepped up marginally this morning with the current demand forecast set at 409 MCM.  The supply side of the equation is stronger still but this is not reflected in prices which have increased marginally day on day.  Forecast demand is currently pitched at 425 MCM while instantaneous flows are running at 424 MCM.  An increase in LNG flows to 60 MCM and a 10 MCM step up in Langeled flows to 70 MCM are the main contributors to the improved supply position while Rough storage continues to operate at full tilt.  The Aldbrough and Hornsea medium range storage facilities are also making a strong contribution at a combined flow rate of 18 MCM while the only remaining notable change in flows is a reduction in deliveries through the Dutch BBL pipeline, from around 33 MCM to 27 MCM.  Within day gas has last traded at 39.00p, day ahead gas is at 38.75p and balance of week is at 38.50p.  Reflecting an expectation for milder weather as the month progresses, balance of month has traded at 37.75p.  Futures prices are down marginally with March last trading at 36.55p and the Summer 2010 contract at 32.75p while Brent crude has continued to tick up with the March contract currently at $70.62 (+$0.51).
Monday
UK gas prompt prices increased by around 1.00p to 2.00p yesterday in response to the return of freezing temperatures and a 15% increase in demand levels with the daily forecast breaking through the 400 MCM mark again.  In an unusual move, gas futures contracts largely failed to follow the upward move in prompt prices and, with the exception of the front month contract, all periods saw marginal day on day declines of around 0.20p to 0.30p.  After falling by around $6.50 over the previous two sessions, crude oil markets took a breather and traded in a relatively narrow range for the majority of the day before consolidating a day on day gain of 75 cents during late trading.  A pause in the dollar's recent rally was at least partly to blame for the halt in the decline while Friday's positive U.S. jobs data will also have been a contributing factor.  Colder weather in the U.S. and in continental Europe also helped to arrest the downturn in prices. 

Weekend/this morning
The system was comfortably supplied through the weekend and remains so this morning, although current flow rates of Norwegian gas via Langeled is some 15MCM below last week's record levels. The increase in demand is being substantially met by long range storage withdrawals from Rough. Withdrawals from long range storage had dropped off to just 15MCM over the weekend but are back at maximum rate of 45MCM again and Bacton-Zeebrugge is contributing a steady import rate of 10MCM so far today. The prompt market has responded to the renewed demand levels and to the return of high withdrawal rates from Rough by pushing up by between 1.00 and 2.00p on all contracts in early trading. The prompt is trading in the range 38.00 to 39.00p this morning. Week-ahead and balance of month are trading at 38.75 and 38.50p respectively. March is up by 0.42p in early trading while contracts further out are little changed. Winter 2010/2011 is down marginally while crude oil has recovered some of last week’s losses and Brent is trading at $70.50 at 10am. 
Friday
The recent disconnect between the oil and gas markets was highlighted on Friday as crude oil tumbled while near curve gas prices rose and gas contracts further out the curve recorded only marginal losses. Brent crude dipped by over $4 intra-day to $67.87 before modest recovery saw it settle at $69.36, down $2.77 day-on-day. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude dipped below the $70 mark as the dollar continued to strengthen, buoyed by positive news on the jobless register for January. The UK gas market continued to show more concern for the short term supply-demand situation which remained healthy on Friday, particularly in light of a reduction in demand to 350MCM, just 2% above the seasonal norm. Forecast lower temperatures for early next week pushed prompt prices up slightly and this, coupled with ongoing concerns over the strength of storage reserves to see out the current winter period, helped push prompt prices higher on the day. 

This morning
UK gas demand has fallen this morning to its lowest level this year with the current forecast for today running at 350 MCM, just 13 MCM above Seasonal Normal Demand.  With forecast supply currently at 356 MCM and instantaneous flows at 364 MCM, the system is well supplied.  After running at maximum output for the majority of time since the New Year, Rough storage output has continued to ramp down over the past two days with flows for this morning currently at 18 MCM.  Langeled flows remain robust, at 70 MCM and LNG send out is  at 46 MCM with the Isle of Grain facility contributing only 2 MCM of that total.  Despite the reduction in demand, prompt prices have remained strong this morning, primarily due to forecasts for the return of colder weather into early next week.  Within day gas has last traded at 36.45p, gas for delivery over the weekend is at 36.30p and the week ahead is currently priced at 37.60p with balance of month at 37.00p.  Gas futures prices are broadly steady in early trading with the front month up by 0.10p and the front Summer down by 0.05p.  Finally, after falling by around $4.00 yesterday, crude oil prices have continued to decline this morning with the Brent crude March contract currently down by 50 cents at $71.65.
Thursday
Crude oil prices and natural gas prices moved in opposite directions for a considerable amount of time yesterday as the gas prompt market and to a lesser extent the futures market found support from an anticipated increase in demand for the short term while crude oil markets succumbed to pressure from a range of factors including a stronger dollar, an unexpected increase in new unemployment claims in the United States and confirmation that U.S. oil demand remained in decline with a 2% year on year fall in demand announced.  Although the gas market traded without deference to crude oil prices for the majority of the day, futures prices eventually traded down from their earlier intra-day highs near the end of the session as the downward momentum in crude oil prices gathered pace.  That momentum eventually brought the March Brent crude contract to an intra-day low of $71.43, down $4.63 day on day, before the contract closed marginally higher at $72.13.

This morning
Yesterday's oil inventory data from the US continued to feed market sentiment overnight and in early trading this morning as crude oil shed almost a dollar from Tuesday's closing level. Brent retreated to $75 per barrel as the impact of a further build in crude stocks dented the recent optimism that demand might be picking up. On the gas market this morning, the prompt moved higher in early trading in response to a tighter system in the UK at the start of trading but with forecast demand falling over the past hour, the system is now more comfortable with forecast demand down to 378MCM and forecast deliveries at 395MCM, and prices generally have come back to within 0.5p of last night's closing levels. The futures market has been sluggish so far this morning and only the front month has seen any significant volume trading, the contract gaining 0.5p on last night's closing price.
Wednesday
The fall in demand at the start of the gas day saw prompt prices easing further as the UK gas system ran up to 19MCM long early on. Demand gradually recovered from the opening level of 387MCM to 395MCM as forecast deliveries fell to 400MCM near the close. The main change in the supply-demand equation was a reduction in storage gas withdrawals which dropped from 45MCM to 30MCM mid-morning. Meanwhile Langeled flow-rates hit another record high of 78MCM yesterday which helped ensure the system remained in surplus throughout the day. Prompt prices rebounded from their earlier lows to finish down by between 0.5p and 1.0p day on day. Early losses of a penny on near futures contracts were also retraced and both the front month and front quarter finished marginally up day-on-day. Any significant moves however were confined to seasonal contracts from winter 2011 forward which gained up to 0.75p on a continued recovery in crude oil prices.  

This morning
Demand for gas in the UK has reduced once again this morning as temperatures continue to rise.  Forecast demand for today has been set at 387MCM, almost 10MCM below the level at the same time yesterday.  Supply on the other hand remains strong and forecast s at present suggest a large build in linepack of 19MCM on a supply of 406 MCM. This large surplus is present despite the fact that flows of Norwegian imports via the Langeled pipeline are reduced by 13MCM from yesterday's peak and send out is now at 61MCM.  Output from the both the Bacton BBL pipeline and Bacton Shell has grown from yesterday and this is adding to the overall comfortable status of the system.  Prompt gas prices have moved lower on account of the system surplus.  Within day gas has shed 2.60p to trade at 35.00p while day ahead is currently changing hands also at 35.00p also down by 1.35p from yesterday's close. 
Tuesday
Crude oil prices closed above $76.00 a barrel on both London and New York exchanges on Tuesday as more positive U.S. home sales data added momentum to the economic recovery.  Light, sweet crude for March delivery closed $2.79 up at $77.23 a barrel while on ICE Brent crude added $2.95 to close at $76.06 a barrel  A suite of positive economic figures emanating from the U.S. gave a positive hue to market sentiment and added considerable support to crude oil prices.  In particular an increase in manufacturing activity was not only limited to the U.S., with China and Europe reporting strong increases.  The increase in crude oil fed into gas contracts and in particular seasonal contracts added nearly a penny in premium.  The front month remained unaffected however and remained more of less flat to the previous session. The gas system remained less than comfortable save for the early opening period however prompt prices, by in large, continued their decline.

This morning 
As temperatures begin to rise again, demand on the UK gas system has dropped to below 400MCM this morning, still more than 10 per cent above the seasonal norm however. Forecast deliveries are currently running 10MCM long and with physical deliveries currently 30MCM ahead of demand, the system is very comfortably supplied. Norwegian supply via Langeled is flowing at a record high for the current winter of 74MCM and if this is sustained, we should see a fall-off in demand for storage withdrawals.   Within-day gas is trading 1.5p lower than last night's closing level and prompt prices generally are down by a further 2p on yesterday's levels. Early losses on futures contracts have been partially retraced and March is currently down by 0.3p with prices for summer gas largely unchanged. The resilience of forward curve prices can be attributed to yesterday's hardening of oil prices. Crude is up a further 65c overnight but is still trading below $75 per barrel.
Monday
Gas prompt prices and futures prices fell back rapidly during early trading on Monday as the market took stock of forecasts for milder weather for the remainder of this week and into next week. Although those forecasts prevailed at the start of last week, the prolonged nature of the recent cold snap and persistently high demand levels left the market erring on the cautious side, in terms of weather outlook and demand, until this week. With temperatures forecast at double digit highs for the UK later this week, the market finally gave up those premiums and the reaction to the milder weather outlook was rapid with day ahead prompt prices down by around 6.00p before 9AM and the front month down by almost 4.00p over the same period. In an apparent effort to re-affirm the ongoing de-coupling in crude oil prices and gas prices, crude oil moved in the opposite direction yesterday, with positive U.S. economic data providing an uplift of around a dollar a barrel for both Nymex and Brent crude oils. 

This morning
This morning’s demand is edging above 400MCM as the cold weather continues and forecast deliveries are running just marginally short at 398MCM at 9am. Within-day gas is trading 2p per therm lower than Friday's level but day-ahead and prices for the rest of the week, week-ahead and even balance-of-month are down by as much as 6p per therm on Friday's levels. The sharp downward movement partly reflects the anticipated end to the current cold snap but also reflects softer sentiment as the end of winter comes closer. The more benign sentiment is also evident in a sharp reduction in the new front-month contract price, March having opened this morning down 2.5p at 36.25p is currently trading at 34.75p, a full 4p down on Friday's closing level. Prices for April and indeed the full summer contract are down by 2p and the front winter is down by a penny. 
Friday
The normal fall-off in Friday's commercial demand was matched by an increase in residential demand as temperatures dipped below freezing again across the UK. The end result was demand remaining in the region of 400MCM but unlike the earlier days of last week, deliveries remained ahead of demand through the day leaving the system in surplus at the close. Bacton-Zeebrugge provided substantial import volumes totaling 18MCM on Friday and was forecast to continue delivering at this rate or higher over the weekend. The comfortable supply-demand balance on the day helped within-day prices to finish below 40p for the first time last week and while the weekend and weekday this week contracts also eased back, day-ahead gas for today was up by 0.75p in the expectation of higher demand. The new front-month (March) contract gained 0.7p in thin trading on the day and prices for summer and beyond recorded more modest gains. Brent crude recorded a loss for the fifth day in a row, shedding 67c to settle at $71.46.

This morning
Having made a brief appearance yesterday, flows of gas across the Bacton Zeebrugge interconnector have resumed once again this morning.  Indeed, send out has doubled from yesterday 10MCM and over 20MCM is flowing at the moment.  These import flows are added to the overall comfortable picture this morning and with demand once again creeping up toward the 400MCM mark the supply side is sending out 416MCM.  The system is displaying considerable length this morning and presently there is a surplus of 16MCM.  Long range storage out of Rough has ramped down overnight and flows have been reduced to 23MCM, down by 22MCM from yesterday's level.  Langeled continues to operate above its plate level of 72MCM and LNG production is running at 44MCM.  While the February contract has expired on ICE, it has continued to push up higher on Spectron and has added 0.70p.  March is the new front month and it to has gained 0.69p and is priced at 38.75p.  The prompt remains strong and prices for day ahead and weekend contracts have pushed on to 43.00p per therm.
Thursday
Prompt gas contracts remained relatively expensive on Thursday despite that fact that they did shed an amount of premium day on day.  Gas demand in the UK moved lower on the day but the market was still pricing in the forecast of colder weather which is expected to extend over the weekend.  The prompt for the most part remained above the 42.00p mark as the high demand profile added support.  The system once again demonstrated its  robust capabilities and the addition of 10MCM of flows via the Bacton Zeebrugge interconnector ensured that it operated with length.  Rough storage continued to operate at full stretch and on the day consistently sent out 45MCM.  The gas futures market retraced on Thursday save for the front month contract which was driven higher by the prompt.  With Thursday signalling the  expiry of this contract it continued on its bull run and added 0.99p, bringing the settlement price to  41.22p, a four month high.

This morning
Gas supply into the UK system remained steady at 395MCM overnight and while demand was down by 20MCM early this morning, it has now ramped up to 390MCM leaving the system with a surplus of 5MCM. Rough storage is continuing to deliver at maximum rates and this is unlikely to change while prompt prices remain around the 40p mark. Prompt prices were down by 2p at the start of trading this morning but with demand ramping up, prices have returned to within 0.5p of last night's closing levels. On the futures market, February opened a penny off yesterday's closing price at 39.5p but has since recovered to 40.6p on this it's last full trading day. March, which assumes front month status from tomorrow, also opened significantly lower but is now trading at 38.35p, fractionally above yesterday's closing price.
Wednesday
Demand on the UK system eased to 400MCM on Wednesday and while the system opened the day with a forecast supply of 408MCM, the brief early surplus reverted to a deficit of 5MCM with supply running at 395MCM for most of the trading day. The prompt gained between 2.3p and 3.3p as forecast colder weather for the remainder of the week and the early part of next week raised expectations of further heavy demand on storage reserves.  While long-range storage is still over 50% full, there is concern that continued high demand could exhaust this capacity by mid-March leaving the system vulnerable to any late winter/early spring cold snaps. This concern was fully reflected in the significant upward movement seen in the morning session yesterday on the prompt and near futures contracts. February gained over 2.5p to 41.75p in the morning session but later drifted back to just over 40p at the close. 

This morning
Gas demand in the UK is forecast at 399MCM this morning and this represents a decline of 24MCM from yesterday's peak level.  The system opened this morning with a predicted supply of 408MCM but this figure has subsequently being revised lower and the brief early surplus has reverted to a deficit of 4MCM on a supply of 395MCM.  The system deficit has driven more gains into prompt contracts and between 3.00p and 3.50p has been added in early trading this morning.  The within day contract traded to a high point of 43.95p but has since pared back and is currently quoted at 43.00p.  Likewise day ahead gas has moved off its early high point but nonetheless is priced at 42.75p, up by 2.95p on yesterday's close.  The prompt is driving gains into gas futures with the front month the hardest hit.  February gas is now trading at 41.75p on ICE having added 2.59p in early morning trading. Long range storage flows, as has been the case over the last few weeks, continue to send out at the maximum rate although Rough remains  54% full. In contrast to gas the crude market remains bearish and prices remain on par with last night's close.
Tuesday 
The bull run in the gas market continued on Tuesday and premium was added to both prompt and future contracts as a result.  The gas demand profile in the UK continues to grow as cold weather dominates.  Once again demand levels exceeded 420MCM as heating sensitive demand grew.  Despite the higher demand, the supply side responded well and operated for the most part with a surplus.  Much of the pressure was on the near month contract which followed the prompt upwards.  Prompt prices pushed higher to 40.00p, while 2.34p was added to the February contract which settled at 39.16p per therm, having earlier reached a high of 39.50p per therm.  Over 2.00p was added to the March contract while the constituent months of quarter 2 added 1.50p.  Further out the curve prices rises were dampened by the continued weakness in crude oil which closed lower at $73.29 a barrel, down $0.40.  The market is keeping a keen eye on long range gas storages stocks which are now 45% depleted.