This Morning
The UK gas system currently has a forecast surplus of 17MCM for today, with demand forecast set at 220MCM.  This is forecast at 7MCM above the seasonal norm of 213MCM. Imports are accounting for 38MCM with Langeled continuing recent levels of contributions of just under 20MCM. Sendout from South Hook is 23MCM this morning with the total LNG sendout forecast at 45MCM. The  market has been typically quite for a Friday with prompt prices remaining within 0.45p of yesterday's closing prices, last trade for within day gas going through at 42.30p up 0.35p and day ahead gas at 41.65p down 0.45p on yesterday. Futures prices out to March 2011 are down by up to 0.30p with September last trading at 38.05p down 0.27p and October  at  42.20p down 0.10p on yesterday's settlement prices. Oil prices have yielded slightly this morning breaking the two day rally in prices which added over $2.50 to the front month. Brent for October delivery last traded at $74.68 per barrel down by 34 cents and Nymex was down 30 cents from $73.36.
Thursday
Gas prompt and futures prices gained around 1.00p per therm on Thursday with support from some modest system tightness in the gas market itself, a decline in available power generation margins and an uplift in crude oil prices.  Exports through the Bacton Zeebrugge inter-connector remained strong, at around 45 MCM and Langeled supplies remained constrained, at just 18 MCM.  With demand running at 238 MCM and the forecast supply lagging by around 4 MCM to 14 MCM. On the pricing side, gas for within day and day ahead delivery traded in a range of 42.15p to 43.50p and the day ahead index closed the day at just above the August average and some 4.00p above the forward price for September.  The September contract itself gained 0.90p at the close after trading in a range of 37.50p to 38.50p, while the remainder of the curve saw a similar uplift. Stronger equity markets and some positive economic data emanating from the U.S. provided support to crude oil markets on Thursday with both Brent and Nymex front month contracts gaining just over $1.50, day on day, and reversing some of the strong losses of the previous two weeks.

This morning
The UK gas system has begun the day with a forecast shortfall of 14MCM today as demand creeps up towards 240MCM. The major change in the supply-demand equation is the loss of LNG production from Milford Haven - South Hook which was sending out up to 50MCM at times yesterday. It is not yet clear whether this is an unplanned outage but the pattern of ramp-down in send out would suggest a planned shut-down, possibly for maintenance, although this is yet to be confirmed. Whatever the cause, the outage has left the UK system struggling, with physical deliveries currently lagging demand by almost 40MCM. Market response has been muted however, suggesting that the outage is seen as temporary and prompt prices are unchanged from last night's closing levels. In fact within-day gas is trading marginally down on yesterday's closing day-ahead price for today. Futures prices have more or less retraced yesterday's losses in early trading with the front month up by 0.58p - the exact amount it shed yesterday and contracts further forward gaining with support from oil which has gained a further 75 cents overnight. Brent crude is currently trading at $74.25 per barrel.
Wednesday
The UK gas system remained reasonably comfortable throughout the day yesterday despite export s via Bacton Zeebrugge once again exceeding early nominations of 38 MCM by some 12MCM. The increased export demand was mainly supplied by a ramp-up in LNG send-out from Milford Haven - South Hook. Langeled supplies remained steady but well below normal levels at 20MCM and Vesterled also flowed at a steady rate of 20MCM. The Bacton Shell feeder was the only indigenous supply source to provide an increase in deliveries yesterday as it ramped-up from 12 to 20MCM over the course of the day. The solid system performance allowed some minor easing on the prompt, within-day losing 0.45p but otherwise there was little change. The futures market had an equally languid day, the front month shed 0.58p and winter 2010 provided the only other significant move on the day in shedding 0.48p. Despite a build in U.S. oil stocks, crude oil gained for the first time in a week, with Brent finishing up a dollar at $73.48.

This morning
Gas prompt prices are down marginally this morning in the absence of any noteworthy changes in gas flows and the supply and demand balance.  Bacton Zeebrugge exports are once again nominated at 38 MCM with total demand at 236 MCM and supplies forecast at 230 MCM.  Langeled supplies continue to run at well below normal levels, at just 20 MCM while LNG send-out has remained robust, at 50 MCM.  Latest trades for within day and day ahead gas have gone through at 41.90p and 41.60p.  The September contract is down by a marginal 0.33p to 37.40p and the remainder of the curve is down by a similar amount with the Winter 2010 contract last trading at 46.30p, down 0.35p.  With Nymex crude oil reaching a two month low yesterday, buying interest has pushed crude oil prices moderately higher this morning.  Brent crude for October delivery has last traded at $72.99, up $0.61 while the Nymex equivalent has gone through at $72.05 to post a gain of 42 cents.  U.S. Energy Information Administration oil stock data will be released later today and with current high stock levels exerting substantial downward pressure on the market, the data has the potential to be a significant price driver on its release.
Tuesday
A decline in exports via the Bacton Zeebrugge interconnector paved the way for a decline in UK gas prompt prices on Tuesday, a move which was followed closely by the futures market.     Bacton Zeebrugge exports fell back from 57 MCM to 38 MCM, before ramping back up to 49 MCM.  Despite this the system was substantially better supplied than the previous day and the combination of the more comfortable supply position the reduction in supply fluctuations brought a decline of  0.70p to 1.80p in prompt gas prices.  The September contract fell back to its lows of last week, trading in a range of 37.40p to 38.40p, before closing the day at 38.00p.   Contracts out to March 2012 fell by a range of 0.53p to 1.50p with a further decline in crude oil prices adding to the prompt led downward pressure.  The decline of $1.26 in the front month October Brent contract brought the market back to its lowest point since 6 July as ongoing concerns around the slow pace of global economic recovery and high oil stock levels continued to weigh on the market.

This morning
With the UK gas system in better shape this morning, the market has opened softer and the prompt has shed over a penny on most contracts. Forecast demand for today is down to just above the seasonal norm at 226MCM thanks to a big fall-off in exports via the Bacton-Zeebrugge interconnector. Forecast deliveries for today are running a little short of demand at 220MCM. Market confidence in the system has been restored following yesterday's concerns over Norwegian supply and there has been no adverse reaction to this morning’s minor supply deficit. An outage on the Mobil feeder to St. Fergus yesterday afternoon proved short-lived and full supply was restored by 5pm. With the prompt leading this morning, near futures are falling strongly in early trading. September and October are down by 1.27 and 1.22p respectively and while contracts further forward have yet to trade, the continuing decline in oil prices is likely to help ease seasonal gas prices from the front winter onwards. Brent is down a further 75 cents this morning and was trading at a seven week low of $72.87 at 9am.
Monday
With the UK gas system running a deficit of over 20MCM yesterday morning, the prompt market bounced back to the price levels seen in the earlier part of the month. Within-day gas hit a high of 44.75p mid-morning before easing back later but still finishing at 43.40p, 1.35p up on Friday's closing price. Day-ahead gas was less effected by the system shortfall reaching an intra-day high of 43.80p but gaining 2.15p on Friday's closing week-ahead price. Exports via the Bacton-Zeebrugge interconnector were near maximum flow levels yesterday, as they have been since Friday and the system only regained balance at 4pm with a doubling of Langeled flows from a low of 12MCM in the morning and an increase in LNG production to almost 60MCM in the afternoon. The near futures market took a lead from the prompt, gaining 0.50 to 0.75p in the morning session, but prices fell back in the afternoon with September finishing 0.52p down and the winter shedding 0.58p on Friday's closing price. Crude oil fell again with Brent down 64 cents to $73.62. 

This morning
UK gas prices are trading higher once again, this morning, with a supply deficit ranging from 18 MCM to 24 MCM the primary source of support for prices.  Forecast supply is currently running at 221 MCM against a demand forecast of 239 MCM, although the gap was larger earlier this morning.  Lower flows through the Bacton terminal and the Langeled pipeline are being partially compensated for by stronger LNG deliveries of 55 MCM and while instantaneous flows have gradually increased to 224 MCM, the strong demand level, incorporating a Bacton Zeebrugge export demand of 57 MCM continues to place a degree of pressure on the system.  That said, prompt gas prices have eased down from their earlier levels with latest trades for within day and day ahead gas going through at 43.80p and 43.50p against earlier highs of 44.75p and 43.80p.  Futures prices have also moved off earlier highs with the September contract last trading at 40.20p (+0.66p), off an earlier high of 40.95p while the Winter 2010 contract has last traded at 49.00p after trading at a high of 49.85p earlier this morning.  Crude oil prices are broadly steady with Friday's close and, after trading in a range of $74.01 to $74.75 so far this morning, the October Brent contract is currently at $74.53 (+$0.27).
Friday
After moving to the sub 40.00p mark on Wednesday, for the first time since 7 June, UK gas prompt prices saw a second consecutive day of increases on Friday and the futures market followed suit, with contracts out to March 2012 up by a range of around 1.00p to 1.60p on the day.  With some reasonable declines seen earlier in the week, the upward movement in price on a week on week basis was more modest with contracts from October 2010 out to Winter 2011 (March 2012) up by a range of 0.11p to 0.80p.  On the day, a ramp down of 20 MCM at the Bacton Shell terminal was well compensated for with an increase in Langeled supplies while LNG deliveries ran at a reasonably robust range of 40 MCM to 47 MCM through the trading day.  Meanwhile, crude oil markets continued to trend lower with Friday delivering the 11th day of decline out of the last 13 trading days, courtesy of a stronger dollar and ongoing concerns around the prospect for oil demand growth.

This morning
The return of the St. Fergus Mobil terminal from a 12 hour maintenance shut-down last night saw what was a struggling UK supply system return to a more comfortable supply-demand balance this morning. Deliveries into St. Fergus increased by 20MCM overnight and Langeled deliveries have ramped-up by a similar volume this morning leaving the UK gas system still slightly short with forecast deliveries of 235MCM against forecast demand of 238MCM. Physical deliveries are running some 3MCM ahead of demand at 10am however and prompt prices, which had rebounded sharply yesterday, are largely unchanged this morning. The futures gas market is experiencing typically sluggish Friday trading and only the front month and winter 2010 have traded so far. September has eased slightly and the Winter contract is up by 0.25p in a very illiquid market. The dollar has gained a cent on the euro overnight and has effectively stymied any rally in oil prices so far today. With NYMEX benchmark West Texas Intermediate trading under $75 there may be buying signals out there but we will have to wait until the U.S. market begins to trade to see if there is any confidence against the background of recent negative demand data. 
Thursday
The prompt market dip below 40p on Wednesday proved short-lived as the UK gas system tightened with reduced Norwegian supply yesterday. Despite opening with a small surplus, the system ran marginally short by the close of business as demand remained above the seasonal norm but deliveries via Langeled and Bacton Shell both fell substantially over the day. The Mobil feeder to St. Fergus had shut down completely at the start of the gas day and increased LNG send-out, particularly from Milford Haven - South Hook, failed to make up the shortfall. For the first time this month, mid-range storage withdrawals were called on to alleviate the growing deficit.   The prompt market clawed back most of Wednesday's losses in early trading with contracts trading at or close to 40.00p again. The strengthening prompt fed into the near futures market where the front month and October contracts gained 0.68 and 0.72p respectively. Further forward, the gains were less substantial with the front winter up by 0.43p. Crude oil fell sharply in late trading and Brent fell by $1.17 to $75.30.

This morning
Norwegian deliveries are reduced today due to maintenance on the Karsto processing facility but the system is still operating with a small surplus with forecast deliveries running at 235MCM against forecast demand of 232MCM. Export demand is again running at around 45MCM today resulting in a total demand level which is slightly above the seasonal norm. The prompt market has clawed back most of yesterday's losses in early trading this morning with contracts trading at or close to 40.00p again. The strengthening prompt is feeding into the near futures market where the front month and October contracts have gained 0.60 and 0.55p respectively. This restores the prompt market premium to the front month which has been a feature of the markets for some time now and may continue into September when interconnector maintenance will interrupt the prompt price affinity with near continental markets and reduce overall demand. The euro has fallen slightly overnight but the dollar remained steady against other major currencies and crude oil has recovered most of yesterday's slippage, Brent trading at $76.70 at 9am.  
Wednesday
Tuesday's reversal of the recent downward trend on the UK gas market proved short-lived as prices again eased yesterday, with a particularly strong decline in prompt prices. Within-day gas was down by over 3.00p on Tuesday's closing day-ahead price and the remainder of the prompt contracts shed between 1.25 and 2.00p day-on-day. The futures market was less significantly moved, with the front month down by 0.75p and the winter shedding 0.67p, but seasonal contracts further out the curve fell by just 0.22 to 0.44p. Oil prices dropped by over a dollar in the morning session on Wednesday, falling equities adding to the downward momentum, but the weekly inventory data from the US Dept. of Energy showed a slight drop in crude inventories which helped to halve the earlier loss. Brent crude settled 46 cents lower at $76.47 a barrel. Despite an increase in gas export demand, the UK gas system enjoyed a strong surplus on Wednesday, helping the prompt to finally break below the 40p mark for the first time in 10 weeks.

This Morning
After yesterday's equity driven gains in crude oil prices, the release of U.S. Energy Information Administration oil stock data later today will be keenly watched by the market.  With crude oil stocks expected to fall by 1.4 million barrels and gasoline inventories forecast to decline by 500,000 barrels, any deviation from those levels may drive a change in direction for the market.  During early trading, crude oil prices have decreased by $0.50 a barrel with October Brent crude last trading at $76.43.  Following on from yesterday's modest gains in gas futures prices and modest losses in gas prompt prices, the UK prompt and futures prices are moving lower this morning with prompt prices currently down by 1.90p to 1.50p, with the day ahead last trading at 38.15p and futures contracts out to March 2011 down by a range of 1.00p to 0.30p. September last traded at 37.40p just before 9:00am. With the day ahead gas index failing to deliver a sub 40.00p price since 7 June last, the move below the 39.00p mark this morning is noteworthy. The UK gas system has a surplus this morning of 22.5MCM being well supported by Langeled  delivering 41MCM and LNG accounting for 50MCM.
Tuesday
After 5 successive days of declines, gas futures markets ticked up marginally on Tuesday, although earlier gains in both prompt prices and futures prices were substantially retraced during the course of the day as the system moved from an early deficit position of 10 MCM to a surplus of 11 MCM by the close of trading.  Prompt prices had increased initially by around 1.20p to 1.30p after a 10% increase in the demand forecast from the previous day left the system short by 10 MCM.  With the initial demand forecast of 250 MCM being revised downward to 237 MCM by early afternoon, prices eased back from their earlier highs with gas for within day and day ahead delivery coming off highs of 42.13p and 42.25p to close the day at 40.10p and 40.40p respectively.  The intra-day swing in the futures market was much more modest with the September contract trading at a high of 38.95p before it eased back to a low of 38.25p and a settlement of 38.40p.  For crude oil markets, stronger equities and gains for the euro against the dollar provided support with Brent crude gaining $1.41 by the close of trading to finish the day at $76.93.    

This morning
Demand on the UK gas system has jumped 10% overnight as temperatures across the UK and Ireland fall and heating demand begins to register following the summer break. Forecast deliveries were lagging a forecast demand of 250MCM by 10MCM at 9am, although physical deliveries were running at 244MCM with LNG production ramping-up. The prompt gained a penny in early trading in response to the system deficit but has begun to ease slightly as the system looks set to return to balance. Within-day and day-ahead gas are both trading at 42.00p at 09.30 and near futures contracts, which had been led higher by the prompt, have also begun to shed some of their earlier gains. The September contract had gained 0.50p in early trading but is now trading at 38.75p or 0.38p up on last night's closing price. The oil market has found some upward momentum with the change of front month on ICE - October has gained 70 cents and stood at $76.33 at 09.30.  Monday
A strong supply surplus on the UK gas system got the week off to a good start as the 15MCM cushion seen early on Monday morning, was only slowly eroded by a 5MCM rise in demand and a similar fall-off in deliveries through the gas trading day. The fall-off in Langeled supply was less than anticipated and total Norwegian deliveries remained at just over 50MCM through the day on Monday and LNG production topped 40MCM, the bulk of this coming from Milford Haven - South Hook. Prompt and futures gas prices moved lower in the morning session and held steady through the afternoon, with prices for within-day and day-ahead delivery finishing down by 2.00 and 1.50p respectively, while the week-ahead and balance-of-month were both down by a penny. On the futures market, September shed 1.54p and the front winter as a whole was down by a penny as were seasonal contracts for summer and winter of 2011. Brent crude settled 26 cents down at $74.85 per barrel.

This morning
Prompt gas and futures prices have continued to move lower this morning with prices for within day and day ahead delivery down by around 0.80p to 1.20p in early trading while futures contracts are down by around 0.60p to 1.00p with the front month contract leading the way.  With forecast demand for today currently running at 219 MCM, the prevailing supply forecast of 234 MCM is delivering a reasonable supply cushion to the market, a factor that is reflected in the latest trades for within day and day ahead gas which have gone through at 41.40p and 41.15p respectively.  The September futures contract has last traded at 38.75p, down 1.04p.  October is at 41.80p, down 0.68p and the front Winter contract is at 47.50p, down 0.76p.  Crude oil prices are trading marginally higher this morning and, after trading in a range of $74.98 to $75.75, the September Brent crude contract has last traded at $75.40, up  29 cents day on day.  The euro is marginally higher against sterling, through early trading, at 0.8222p and it is also marginally higher against the dollar, at 1.2818, a factor which will be price supportive for crude oil markets.
Friday
Gas and oil prices continues to tick lower on Friday, bringing to close a week of modest declines for the gas market and a more noteworthy fall in oil prices.  With the exception of the front month contract, the UK gas market ended the week lower on Friday after a further day of modest declines on both prompt and futures markets.  While the September contract ended the week 0.21p higher, it was also the only contract to post a sub 40.00p settlement price when it closed the day at 39.79p after trading in a range of 39.55p to 40.45p.  For periods from November out to March 2011, prices were down by around 0.50p on the day and by 1.01p to 1.26p week on week.  Aside from a reasonably strong supply position for the prompt market, currency factors will also have helped the market ease lower as sterling continued to make modest gains against the euro through the week.  Meanwhile, continued gains for the dollar and concerns about the slower than expected pace of economic recovery weighed on the oil market last week, with a further loss of 41 cents on Friday bringing the week on week decline to a cumulative $5.05.     

This morning
Oil prices have picked up slightly in overnight trading as buyers emerge at the $75 per barrel level and Brent is currently trading at $76.27 in the ICE market, up 75 cents on last night's settlement price. The UK gas system is finely balanced this morning with forecast deliveries of 218MCM against forecast demand of 219MCM at 9am. Export demand remains at around 25MCM and all supply sources are functioning normally. Langeled flows dropped from the 40MCM level it has been delivering all week to 30MCM at the start of the gas day and this may signal the start of the latest round of maintenance on Norwegian facilities which feed into the Langeled line. Total LNG production remains steady at around 35MCM with the Milford Haven facilities alternating send-out at times. Prompt gas prices are unchanged from last night's closing levels but the front month and October contracts are up by 0.34 and 0.60p respectively, while the front winter has gained 0.45p but remains below the 50p mark. 
Thursday
The slide in oil prices continued yesterday as US equity and commodity markets saw a big sell-out on fears of a slowdown in global recovery. The resultant move to the relative safety of the currency markets saw the dollar strengthen against the euro and other major currencies, putting further downward pressure on crude oil prices. Brent crude slipped by almost $2.50 to an intra-day low of $75.24 and Brent crude settled at $75.22, down $2.12 on Wednesday's closing price. Gas prices also moved lower with the prompt market encouraged by a positive supply/demand balance which actually increased from 2MCM early morning to over 5MCM in the afternoon. The front-month took its cue from the improved supply/demand balance, falling below 40.00p for the first time this week. Contracts further forward fell in line with lower oil prices and improved confidence in UK supply, particularly LNG supply, which has become a marginal price setter for the UK market due to its increased importance to UK system balance during the summer maintenance season.

This morning 
Crude oil continues to lose ground and yesterday's losses were extended overnight.  Investors are concerned about the strength of the of the U.S. economic recovery which has shown some negative signs recently. Brent crude futures continue to weaken this morning and its brief journey above $80 is well and truly over as crude trades at $77.33, down by $0.31 from last night's close.  Gas prices are also moving lower this morning as the lower crude ill price and a system surplus adds to the bearish feel on the market.  Gas demand this morning is forecast at 216MCM while supplies are coming in at 218MCM, giving the system a small surplus of 2MCM.  The Bacton Shell terminal is back up to somewhere near normal flow rates after it dropped off yesterday.  Send out is running at 18MCM.  In addition LNG production has increased day on day and the Grain NTS 1 terminal has swung into action and is sending out 9MCM.  Gas future prices are in decline this morning and already the front month has shed a penny.  The front Winter is marked down to 49.00p having shed 0.83p in early trading.  Prompt prices have yet to react and are on par with last night's close.
Wednesday
Crude oil futures extended losses on Wednesday as a U.S. government report on oil inventories added to worries about the ability of the global recovery to support demand.  Light, sweet crude for September delivery closed lower by $2.23 at $78.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after falling to a low of $77.13 following the report from the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration.  The gas market turned lower again on Wednesday and extended losses for the second straight session.  However the losses were minor in the overall scheme of things and contracts continue to trade strongly.  As ever much of the activity was focused on the front month contract which had an eventful day.  Early trades for September saw prices up by 0.78p as the contract changed hands at 41.85p per therm, the intra-day high.  But in recognition of the more comfortable system this contract slipped back to 40.65p.  A late rally saw September turn negative, but by only 0.06p.

This morning
Crude futures fell below $80.00 a barrel on Tuesday following weakening economic data from China and as the market awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement.  After the recent rally oil prices fell overnight, pulled down  by a report that showed Chinese import growth is slowing.  North Sea Brent crude settled at $79.60 on ICE, $1.39 below the previous settlement.  Gas demand in the UK decreased by 8MCM day on day and with supplies also increasing the system was in a much better position during trading on Tuesday.  Forecast demand for the day was predicted 215MCM which was 10MCM below the seasonal norm.  The prompt market  responded almost immediately to the comfortable supply position and the within day contract moved to a low of 42.60p and settled at this position.  Day ahead gas also shed 2.00p to finish at a similar level.  The futures market failed to retrace the full extent of the previous day's gains and overall settled down by just 0.31p on average.
Tuesday
The gas system in the UK is operating in comfortable mode once again this morning and there is a reasonable surplus at this stage.  Gas demand for today has remained on par with yesterday's level and at 215MCM remains below the seasonal norm by 10MCM.  Supplies are ahead of demand by 7MCM as send out is running at 222MCM.  Norwegian imports  through St. Fergus Total and Easington Langeled are broadly similar to yesterday and their combined total is 55MCM.  There has been a drop off in LNG output and the Milford Haven Dragon terminal has turned off completely since 6am this morning.  LNG production is contributing 34MCM to the system nonetheless.  On the markets the gas prompt has virtually ignored the well supplied gas system and prices are trading at their high point so far.  The within day contract had opened at 42.75p but has ticked up in the last hour to an intra-day high of 43.10p.  Likewise day ahead gas is priced at this level which is half a penny up on last night's close.  The futures market is also trading higher but additional premium has been restricted to 0.20p.  Crude oil has firmly retraced back below $80.00 a barrel and is trading at $78.99 on ICE.

This morning
The UK gas system has begun the day in far healthier condition this morning by comparison to yesterday when it failed to find equilibrium through the trading day, balance only being restored with the help of withdrawals from mid-range storage overnight. With overall demand 8MCM lower than at this time yesterday, forecast deliveries are providing a 7MCM supply cushion this morning with the help of increased flows on Bacton Shell and the Balgzand Bacton line (BBL) with physical deliveries also ahead of demand of 211MCM at 9am. Prompt prices have softened by 1.50p in early trading today - the positive supply/demand balance helping to bring prompt prices more in line with the front month - which has itself eased by a penny in early trading this morning. Crude oil has shed $1.25 overnight as the dollar gains against the euro and the yen but the decline may have more to do with market anticipation of a 'no change' announcement from the Federal Reserve meeting today regarding interest rate and economic stimulus. Front month Brent crude has dipped below $80 on the ICE this morning for the first time in over a week.
Monday
The UK gas system struggled with a deficit of up to 20MCM through the trading day yesterday and the forecast supply-demand situation remained 12MCM short at the close of business. Physical deliveries at that stage were some 50MCM short of forecast demand, Norwegian supply via Langeled having ceased completely at 15.30. The prompt market response was muted however, indicating an expectation of a rapid return of Langeled supply. Prompt prices had increased earlier in the day in any case, as the system failed to find balance. Within-day and day-ahead contracts gained 2.25 and 2.60p on Friday's closing prices for Monday. The front-month and October contracts gained 1.88 and 1.19p respectively and while Q4 2010 gained 1.06p, further forward, gains were limited to a maximum of a penny, tempered in part at least by relatively stable oil prices. Brent crude hovered around the $81 mark for most of the day yesterday, finishing just under at $80.99.      

This morning
With the return of the Bacton Shell feeder from maintenance, the system was well supplied with demand below 200MCM over the weekend. Norwegian supply and LNG production were both remarkably stable since Friday, with Langeled flowing at a constant 40MCM and combined LNG send-out averaging between 25 and 35MCM on Saturday and Sunday. A doubling of export demand via Bacton-Zeebrugge to a forecast 34MCM for today and the cessation of LNG production from the Milford Haven - Dragon facility, leaves the system running at a 16MCM shortfall against total demand of 214MCM this morning. LNG production has established a price setting role, on the prompt market at least, acting as a swing supply source through the current summer maintenance period. Following an early tick-up in prompt and near futures prices, the latest trades for spot and front-month gas have come back to just 0.30 to 0.40p above Friday's closing levels. Crude oil has recovered half of Friday's loss in early trading today and Brent is currently trading at $80.75.
Friday
After a typically slow start to trading on Friday, the market gained some momentum in the afternoon with earlier losses on the prompt and futures gas markets increasing to close around a penny down on Thursday's closing prices. On the prompt market the within-day contract shed 2.00p from its previous closing position and day-ahead was down 1.70p. The gas system struggled for balance and ran at a 5MCM deficit throughout the trading day, despite demand remaining below the seasonal norm at just over 200MCM. Exports to the continent via Bacton-Zeebrugge continued to decline and were running at 15MCM over the day but a drop of 10MCM in LNG send-out from the Isle of Grain and total flows of just 22MCM into St. Fergus maintained the system in deficit. The bearish trend on the futures market ensured that the prompt also eased despite the system shortfall. Near futures and Winter 2010 were down by just over a penny day-on-day and between 0.50p and 1.00p week-on-week. Crude oil eased by $1.45 but remains above $80 per barrel.  

This morning
Trading is light on the futures gas market at this early stage and the front month contract is the only one to have traded so far.  The price for September has moved lower for the fourth day in a row and is priced at 40.65p, down by 0.32p in this morning's market.  Traders seem to quite reticent at the moment although the wide bid offer spreads on ICE would certainly discourage buyers.  On the prompt market the with day contract has shed 1.60p from its previous closing position and can be had for 43.90p.  Day ahead is quoted at 43.70p per therm and again this contract has declined by half a penny from its last settlement.  Once again this morning the gas system is struggling to get into balance and the system is short by 5MCM at present.  Forecast demand is 210MCM and supplies are running at just 205MCM.  Exports to the continent via the Bacton Zeebrugge interconnector continue to decline and nominations for today have reduced to just 15MCM.  LNG supplies out Milford Haven Dragon have turned down by 10MCM over night  and this is the principle reason for the deficit.  Crude oil is trading flat to yesterday's market at $81.50 a barrel.
Thursday
The gas market continued in its downward direction and for a third day in a row prices declined across the board.  The 1.72p increase in prices that occurred in the market on Monday has virtually been wiped out as the market retraced in the last three sessions. As was the case on Wednesday the futures market ignored the upward pressure on prompt contracts brought about by another considerable system deficit.  Prompt prices peaked at 46.50p for within day but eased toward the close to settle at 45.50p, still up by 1.25p day on day.  The remainder of the prompt settled lower.  Gas futures declined on average by 0.69p across the board and the front Winter moved to 50.48p per therm. Crude futures dropped on Thursday as a rise in U.S. jobless claims raised concerns about the state of the economy of the world's biggest oil consumer.  Declining prices reflected an interruption to a stream of economic indicators pointing to a steady  economic recovery that had pushed crude futures as high as $82.97 a barrel on Wednesday last. 

This morning
Gas markets have opened softer this morning and most contracts are trading lower despite the fact that the system is out of balance and has a deficit of 18MCM, the same as the opening position on Wednesday.  Forecast demand for today is predicted at 212MCM while on the supply side the system is only producing 194MCM.  There have been no changes in the rate of export flows to the continent via the Bacton Zeebrugge interconnector and these remain at 19MCM.  However a step back in LNG production overnight has left the system struggling for balance.  total LNG production has reduced from 44MCM yesterday to just 34MCM as Milford Haven South Hook has ramped down.  That said supplies from Norway via the Langeled pipeline have remained steady overnight and send out continues at 40MCM.  The gas market is ignoring the difficulties with the system this morning and prompt prices have opened lower.  The within day contract has shed 0.85p from last night’s close and is priced at 43.40p.  Day ahead is available for 43.75p, a 0.60p loss so far this morning.  Futures prices are down by about 0.50p with September trading at 41.00p and the front Winter at 50.45p.
Wednesday
Crude oil futures  posted some losses on Wednesday after a key U.S. government report showed fuel inventories rising, although a steep drop in crude oil stockpiles prevented deeper losses.  The Energy Information Administration's report showed U.S. demand barely above year ago levels, too low to consume the fuel produced by refiners operating at 91.2% capacity, close to their highest rate in three years. On ICE Brent crude closed at $82.20 a barrel, down by $0.48 from its previous settlement.  Trading on in the gas market was quite erratic on Wednesday as price movements fluctuated between positive and negative for much of the session.  The market was characterised by a lack in any clear fundamental direction as competing influences emerged at various times during the day.  Losses on gas futures  was minimal with 0.23p of premium coming out of all contracts.

This morning
Gas demand in the UK continues to increase and we have seen a steady uplift over the last three days.  Having declined below the 200MCM mark on Monday, forecast demand for today has been predicted to increase to 214MCM.  The supply side has not been able to respond to the higher demand figure and at the moment gas supplies are lagging behind with forecast flow only coming in at 196MCM.  The deficit o the system of 18MCM is surprising given that export demand to the continent remains restricted and nomination for today are set at 19MCM, well below the levels we have seen of late.  Flows of 14MCM through the St. Fergus Total terminal would suggest that maintenance is continuing although the other main Norwegian source is contributing a healthy 40MCM.  Storage remains a feature with Aldborough sending out 10MCM and also with some injections into long range storage.  On the gas market prices have ticked up slightly on the system deficit.  The front month has increased by 0.20p to 41.85p while the front Winter was up by 0.56p earlier on but has since declined to 51.50p, up by 0.157 from last night's close.  Crude oil is trading lower at $82.18 a barrel, down by $0.50.
Tuesday
Gas futures prices eased marginally on Tuesday but still retained the majority of Monday's gains in a pattern similar to that seen at the end of last week where a relatively strong increase in prices on Thursday was followed by a marginal decline in prices the following day.  By mid morning yesterday, most futures contracts had seen day on day gains of around 1.00p to 1.50p but prices eased back from that point, despite an increase in prompt prices and a dollar led gain of around $1.50 a barrel in crude oil prices.  LNG made a strong contribution to the supply side of the equation, with send-out of 57 MCM accounting for around 26.4% of total system demand, including Bacton Zeebrugge exports of just under 20 MCM.  Langeled supplies were also steady, at 38 MCM and despite a reasonably robust supply position overall, prompt prices remained strong with prices for within day and day ahead delivery trading in a tight range of 43.00p to 44.25p through the day.  

This morning
Gas demand in the UK has increased day on day and is forecast at 208MCM almost 10MCM ahead of yesterday's opening position.  An increase in exports across the Bacton Zeebrugge interconnector accounts for all of the increase as this source ramps up from 18MCM to 28MCM.  It would seem that recent maintenance work on the French side has been completed although we are not seeing anything like the 50MCM in exports that were present in recent weeks.  Supplies this morning are once again ahead of demand and the system is experiencing length of 6MCM so far.  LNG production has dropped off by 6MCM overnight although production remains reasonable for this time of year at 48MCM.  Langeled flows are stable and send out is again running at 38MCM while once again short range storage is contributing 9MCM out of Aldborough.  On the markets and initial step up in prices has been retraced and September has lost over a penny in the last hour to trade at 41.85p having peaked at 43.00p earlier on.  Likewise the front Winter has also weakened and an initial gain of 1.32p has been pared to just 0.02p.  Crude oil remains above $80 a barrel although it is down by $0.09 at $80.73 a barrel.
Monday
Crude oil futures settled above $80 a barrel for the first time since May on Monday after a wave of strong manufacturing sector data renewed investors faith in the global economic recovery.  Oil prices surged higher along with other commodities and equity markets worldwide after July manufacturing indexes in the U.S., the euro zone and the UK all came in better than expected.  On ICE Brent crude closed at $80.93, up by $2.75 on the day.  UK NBP gas prices pushed higher on Monday and on average just under 2.00p was added to all contracts.  The new front month September experienced much of the pressure with prices moving on to 43.00p per therm as 2.34p was added in a hectic session of trading.  Winter 2010 initially opened lower but added premium throughout the day as market sentiment changed.  The front Winter closed on the day at 52.65p at 2.86p above its previous closing position. 

This morning
Gas demand for today has dropped to a 2010 low and is projected below 200MCM at just 197MCM. This is considerably below the levels recorded in the last week and almost 18MCM below the seasonal norm. In the last number of weeks we have seen a significant amount of gas being exported to continental Europe with in excess of 55MCM on occasions. These exports have dropped off by a considerable amount this morning and nominations for today are set at just 18MCM. The supply forecast for today is predicted at 211MCM and the system is forecast to be long by up to 14MCM . While supplies from Norway via the Langeled pipeline have steeped back over the weekend this source is still sending out just over 38MCM. In addition the storage facility at Aldborough is active with 6MCM emanating from this source. LNG production is strong with 52MCM coming onto the system principally from Milford Haven South Hook and Dragon. On the markets prompt gas prices are more or less stable with only the day ahead contracts showing any weakness as it moves down by 0.25p. On the other hand gas futures have ticked up with September adding 0.34p and Winter 2010 up by 0.70p.
Friday
The gas system opened well balanced on Friday and maintained that position for the day with forecast demand barely changing from the initial level of 227MCM. Supplies were well matched to demand with some surpluses emerging notably in the early afternoon when the system was displaying length of 5MCM. A significant development on Friday was the ramp up in deliveries from Norwegian sources which contributed over 70MCM to the overall system. Total imported deliveries into the UK represented 55% of total demand on the day. On the other hand gas exports to continental Europe for Friday ran 37MCM lower than the average for the week. With the exception of the August contract, which was still trading on Spectron, all contracts shed some of the premium added in the previous session. Overall futures contracts shed 0.66p on average with Winter 2010 moving below 50.00p to 49.79p per therm. Crude oil had a mixed day with competing signals vying for dominance. Crude finished up by $0.59 at $78.18 a barrel.

This morning
Gas prompt prices and futures prices have opened higher this morning as a modest supply deficit places a degree of upward pressure on the market.  Forecast demand for today is currently running at 232 MCM against a supply forecast of 219 MCM and an instantaneous flow at the same level.  A 6 MCM reduction in LNG flows to 37 MCM and a decline of 13 MCM in BBL flows have been largely offset by a ramp up in output from the St Fergus Shell and St Fergus Mobil terminals from 5PM yesterday and 6 AM this morning.  Both terminals are currently receiving gas at a rate of just over 10 MCM.  Latest trades for within day and day ahead gas have gone through at 43.00p and 42.80p while the August futures contract is currently at 41.30p (+1.10p) on its last day trading as the front month contract.  September gas is currently up by 1.20p and October is up 1.52p, at 43.75p while the Winter 2010 contract has seen a similar gain, last trading at 49.90p.  Crude oil markets have continued to trade relatively flat with September Brent crude last trading at $76.35, up $0.29 and Nymex September crude at $77.27, up $0.28. 
Wednesday
The energy complex as a whole saw a relatively quiet trading day on Wednesday with the majority of contracts seeing minimal day on day price movement.  Following a decline of around 1.50p to 2.00p on Tuesday, gas prompt prices increased marginally on Wednesday, courtesy of a modest upward shift in demand through the course of the day which left the system with a supply deficit of around 7 to 10 MCM through the afternoon trading session.  Prices for within day and day ahead delivery moved from a low of 41.00p to respective highs of 42.30p and 42.00p before closing the day just below those highs.  On the futures market, prices for contracts beyond August increased by a range of 0.39p to 0.49p while the August contract was more responsive to prompt market movements with a gain of 0.65p.  Fluctuations in deliveries into the St Fergus Shell and Total terminals had little obvious impact on price despite while currency markets and crude oil prices also offered little in the way of direction to the gas market on a relatively benign trading day.  

This morning
With forecast export demand remaining in the region of 30MCM for today, overall demand is slightly below the seasonal norm and the system is comfortably supplied with a 2MCM surplus.  Langeled deliveries are running at just over 40MCM, a level which is compensating for the mere 5MCM flowing on the Vesterled line to St. Fergus.  LNG production continues to vary with demand and with cargoes due at both Milford Haven terminals today, the short-term outlook on this source is positive.  This will be of significance as the UK indigenous supply sources come off for maintenance over the next 4 to 6 weeks.  The first of these outages begins this weekend with the closure of the Britannia, Brae and South Morecombe fields.  Following yesterday's step downwards, the prompt market has remained static this morning but futures prices have gained by between 0.35 and 0.50p in early trading.  Crude oil has gained marginally in early trading but trading has been sluggish overnight and this morning as the market awaits the weekly inventory data from the US due later today. 

Tuesday
Lower export demand on the Bacton-Zeebrugge interconnector was key to losses on the UK gas prompt market yesterday.  Even though the system struggled with a deficit of up to 15MCM and ended the trading day with a 4MCM shortfall, prompt prices retained losses incurred in early morning trading.  Within-day and day-ahead gas traded 1.30 to 1.50p below Monday's levels and the weekend and week-ahead contracts both shed 1.70p day-on-day.  The interconnector shipped just 30MCM to the continent, down by 20MCM on Monday's export volumes and the reduction in overall demand which resulted was enough to encourage the prompt lower despite the system shortfall.  The fact that the front month traded at up to a 2.00p discount to the spot price also helped to lower prompt prices across the board.  The futures market continued to shed premium, but to a more modest degree than on Monday.  Crude oil shed $1.38 as the dollar staged a weak recovery against the euro and the yen and Brent crude settled at $76.13.  

This morning
Export demand on the Bacton-Zeebrugge interconnector has fallen by 10MCM from yesterday's level bringing total forecast demand in the UK to 220MCM at 0900. This is up on earlier forecasts and what was a 5MCM shortfall on the system, has now increased to 15MCM, similar to the deficit we saw yesterday. Norwegian deliveries via the Vesterled link to St. Fergus dropped off completely yesterday afternoon but have been partially restored since 6am. Langeled has ramped up slightly this morning but with the lower export demand, the system is coping well, even with total LNG production at only 20MCM. The prompt gas market responded positively to the early low demand, within-day and day-ahead prices trading 2.00p lower than last night's closing levels and the futures market has is continuing to shed premium following the interruption of the downward trend at the end of last week. The front month, and indeed contracts through to the end of 2010, are all down by a penny this morning. Crude oil has eased marginally but a weakening dollar is preventing any significant move downwards. 

Monday
UK gas prompt prices remained high and added an amount of premium on Monday as a persistent deficit kept the gas system short. On the other hand the gas futures market moved in the opposite direction as the sell off which was temporarily halted at the end of last week started again in earnest. The systems discomfort was exacerbated by the continuation of high levels of UK gas exports across the Bacton Zeebrugge interconnector to Belgium. Export nominations for Monday went above 50MCM and added to the overall forecast demand of 223MCM. This figure was revised lower to 217MCM by mid afternoon. Supplies were lagging behind all day and struggled to reach 213MCM leaving the system short by 11MCM on opening and 5MCM later on. On the markets the prompt maintained a premium of over 2.00p on the front month as a result. Futures gas prices declined by 1.60p on average as the euro once again put in a strong performance against both the dollar and sterling. Crude oil moved down slightly with Brent settling at $77.50.

This morning
Gas prompt prices are broadly unchanged through early trading today as the market finds support from a modest supply deficit, while futures contracts have moved lower once again against the backdrop of further gains for the euro against the dollar.  Forecast demand for today is currently pitched at 224 MCM, just 2 MCM above Seasonal norms despite Bacton Zeebrugge export demand running at 50 MCM.  Forecast supply is currently lagging by 11 MCM, at 213 MCM.  Supplies of Norwegian gas to the market are relatively low this morning with Langeled deliveries at 30 MCM and St Fergus Total deliveries down to just 5 MCM.  Countering this, instantaneous LNG deliveries are currently running at a robust 49 MCM with the Milford Haven facility contributing 43 MCM of the total send-out.  Latest trades for within day and day ahead gas have gone through at 43.50p and 43.00p, largely unchanged from Friday's close while futures contracts are currently down by 0.75p to 1.25p with latest trades for August and September going through at 41.20p (-1.13p) and 39.75p (-1.20p) and Winter 2010 at 49.00p.

This Morning:
The shortfall on the UK gas system which prompted yesterday's reversal of the recent down-turn in gas prices is again a dominant feature this morning. Forecast demand stands at 238MCM, which is 10 per cent above the seasonal norm and is showing little sign of the usual decline as we head into the weekend. Forecast deliveries of 220MCM mean the system was running at a deficit of 18MCM at 9am and the prompt and near futures markets are taking direction from the system weakness. LNG is again providing the swing volumes to the UK system and having ramped up to balance the system overnight, combined send-out has fallen back by 20MCM this morning. The prompt has been quite slow to trade this morning and the within-day price has opened at 44.00p, almost 3.00p up on last night's closing day-ahead price. The weekend is up by a penny but week-ahead is yet to trade. There has been more activity on the futures market however, the front month is up by 1.35p and September, Winter 2010 and Summer 2011 are all up by around a penny. Brent is steady at $78.

Thursday:
Demand on the UK gas system jumped by almost 15MCM over levels seen for the earlier days of the week. Exports via the Bacton Zeebrugge interconnector amounted to some 50MCM of the total demand of 240MCM yesterday and deliveries struggled to keep pace, running at a deficit of between 5 and 20MCM at various times. Langeled flows have reduced to just 20MCM and LNG production was also down day-on-day with the Milford Haven - Dragon and Isle of Grain facilities reducing send-out by a combined 15MCM in the early morning. Storage withdrawals made little contribution to the supply side yesterday and the system remained 5MCM short at the close of business. Not surprisingly, prompt prices picked up and within-day gained almost 2.5p while day-ahead was up by 1.5p while the weekend and week-ahead were also up by a penny. The futures market took it's cue from the prompt, the front month and front winter contracts gaining 1.55 and 2.03p respectively. Brent crude gained almost $2.50 to settle at $77.82.

This morning
Demand on the UK gas system has increased by a considerable amount and forecasts for today would suggest a level of 244MCM, well ahead of the seasonal norm and more that 12MCM ahead of the Wednesday's demand level.  Export flows to the continent of 48MCM via the Bacton Zeebrugge interconnector are adding to the overall demand.  Supplies at the moment are struggling to keep pace and send out across the entire system is running at 224MCM and the system is short by 20MCM.  Langeled flows have reduced overnight and are running at 19MCM, more than 5MCM lower than yesterday. In addition LNG production has also stepped back and is lower than yesterday's level by more than 5MCM.  Storage supplies are once again a feature with Aldborough again active and adding just over 4MCM.  The markets have opened stronger this morning on the  system deficit and at one stage within gas was priced at 43.00p, up by 1.45p from last night close.  In the last hour or so prices have eased and gains have been restricted to just 0.50p in light trading.  Crude oil is trading flat to last nights close at $75.41 a barrel.

Wednesday
The gas market continued its decline on Wednesday bringing it to a seven day losing streak.  Prices opened softer from the outset and weakened as the market progressed.  Trading on the ICE platform was extremely heavy for the second day in a row and it is clear that the market has taken on significant  downward momentum.  On the front month alone there were 19,500 lots traded which is the heaviest volume by far for the year to date.   On the futures market the front month August contract was down by 3.61p at one stage at the intra day low of 38.75p.  It rebounded somewhat later on to finish at 39.85p, a day on day decline of 2.51p.  This contract has now lost 10.35p in the last 8 sessions Crude oil futures moved lower on Wednesday after a U.S. government report showed across the board gains in oil and fuel inventories, a reversal after two weeks of tightening supplies.  Oil prices turned negative after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that oil inventories had risen 4000,000 barrels in the week ended July 16.